tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26024834465370486192023-11-16T17:22:59.304+05:30gayblogpepeTodayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.comBlogger359125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-38768691282954244412012-04-04T12:41:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:41:17.725+05:30NZD Gains as RBNZ Shows Optimism for New Zealand Economy<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CSGkyjrIOXU/TnbpBCNDjZI/AAAAAAAAAFw/MNJXiQ0IFyw/s1600/NZD.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="87" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CSGkyjrIOXU/TnbpBCNDjZI/AAAAAAAAAFw/MNJXiQ0IFyw/s320/NZD.jpg" width="129" /></a></div>The New Zealand dollar jumped today after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained its interest rates yesterday and signaled that the good health of the nation’s economy can lead to higher rates in the future.<br />
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The RBNZ held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.5 percent yesterday. The central bank explained that “the New Zealand economy has performed relatively well”. Yet the outlook for the global economy, including the markets of the main nation’s trading partners, “has deteriorated markedly”. The RBNZ voiced concern about the strength of the nation’s currency:<br />
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Largely because the New Zealand economy has been doing better than many others, the New Zealand dollar has appreciated since the June Statement. The high level of the New Zealand dollar is having a dampening influence on some parts of the tradable sector and on imported inflation.<br />
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The bank predicted that the inflation will stay above the bank’s target range of 1 to 3 percent, but over time the growth of the consumer prices will slow. In the end, the RBNZ signaled that higher interest rates are possible in the future:<br />
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If recent global developments have only a mild impact on the New Zealand economy, it is likely that the OCR will need to increase.<br />
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NZD/USD climbed from 0.8235 to 0.8307 as of 18:16 GMT today. EUR/NZD fell from 1.6833 to 1.6578, while NZD/JPY jumped from 63.13 to 63.85.<br />
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If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the New Zealand Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-23859727111593431722011-09-20T11:18:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:44:44.728+05:30Filling in the blanks for Bill Keller<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-26Nab08QvH8/Tngo9AGfS9I/AAAAAAAAAHM/BOFlvbSCeLE/s1600/mr4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-26Nab08QvH8/Tngo9AGfS9I/AAAAAAAAAHM/BOFlvbSCeLE/s320/mr4.jpg" width="250" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Based on his opinion of the state of the Obama adminsitration, fmr. NYT Executive Editor Bill Keller needs someone to fill in some blanks, primarily between his ears:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"></div><a name='more'></a><br /><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">The decline in Obama’s political fortunes, the Great Disappointment, can be attributed to four main factors: the intractable legacy bequeathed by George W. Bush; Republican resistance amounting to sabotage; the unrealistic expectations and inevitable disenchantment of some of the president’s supporters; and, to be sure, the man himself.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Keller trots out the already tired trope that Obama inherited the wind from George W. Bush:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Unfunded wars, supply-side deficits, twin housing and banking crises enabled by an orgy of regulatory permissiveness — that was the legacy Obama assumed. In our political culture if you inherit a problem and don’t fix it, you own it. So at some point it became the popular wisdom that Iraq and Afghanistan were “Obama’s wars,” and that the recession had become “Obama’s economy.” Given the systemic burden Bush left for his successor, that judgment seems to me to be less about fair play than about short memories.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In Keller’s telling of “historical truth,” the Democrats’ initial support of those wars disappears, their control of Congress from 2006-08 magically vanishes, and our debt has nothing to do with government spending even the Obama administration admits is unsustainable. As for the housing and banking crises, the NYT’s own business reporter seems to find responsible an unholy alliance between Wall Street, the Democratic establishment, community organizing groups like ACORN and La Raza, and politicians like Barney Frank, Nancy Pelosi and Henry Cisneros. Moreover, most Americans continue to blame Bush for the economy; Keller is simply delusional on this point. As I was unable to find any polling on who is to blame for our current wars, I would wager Keller is also indulging his imagination on this point (and one would hope people blame Al Qaeda and the Taliban for the Afghan campaign).</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Keller continues:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Another toxic legacy of the Bush years is an angry conservative populism, in which government is viewed as tyranny and compromise as apostasy.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I sort of agree with this, to the extent that the Tea Party grew out of the reaction against the Wall Street bailout. But “Republican resistance amounting to sabotage”? During the GHWBush administration, Democrats supported the war on terror, acquiesced in enhanced interrogation of high-value terror suspects and warrantless eavesdropping on terror suspects, and were part of the consensus that Saddam Hussein and his WMD programs posed a grave and growing threat to our national security — only to cynically disavow all of it when the going got tough… and to end up continuing most of Bush’s war policies in the Obama administration, adding targeted assassination of US citrizens and possibly indefinite detention. Compared to that record, Bill Keller has the unmitigated gall to call the standard GOP opposition to higher taxes, job-killing regulations and unsustainable government spending “amounting to sabotage”? Puh-leeze.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Indeed, Keller’s account of “historical truth” on this point ignores that Obama had a Democratic Congress for two years, including a period where Dems had a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Obama got his stimulus, TARP II, Obamacare and the Dodd-Frank financial regulatory law. Keller credits for Obama for all of these things later in his column, ignoring that if the GOP is any position to hinder Obama today, it is due to widespread public disappointment with and revulsion against the Obama record.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Keller pooh-poohs liberal disenchantment with Obama. Here again, there is a kernel of truth to Keller’s point. Progressive ideologues are being unrealistic about what Obama could achieve, given how unpopular his agenda has been. And there is partisan cynicism in opposing even Obama’s tiny and practically illusory nods toward entitlement reform. But it is an irony-free observation coming from Keller, who is blaming Obama himself. And his criticism of Obama is hilarious:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Obama can be faulted for periods of passivity (his silence as Republicans have sought to defund financial reforms), for a naïve deference to Congress (his belated engagement in the details of the health care bill), for a deficit of boldness and passion, for not doing more to stiffen the spines of his caucus on Capitol Hill, for not understanding — at least until his latest barnstorming on the jobs bill — that governing these days is a permanent campaign.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Obama’s successes were arguably due to his leaving the grubby work of vote-counting to the Democratic leadership in Congress, while focusing on buying off stakeholders: health insurers, pharmacos, investment banks, etc. Keller is now blaming Obama for not being bold mere paragraphs after dismissing his fellow travelers as politically unrealistic. Moreover, Keller seems to have forgotten all of the town halls, photo-ops, infomercials, press conferences, and the occasional speech to a joint session of Congress in support of the various items on the Obama agenda during the first half of his term. I can almost forgive Keller for blotting them from his mind, given how unsuccessful they all were in moving public opinion. But they all happened. Obama has always understood the permanent campign; indeed, it’s all Obama knows how to do.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Lastly, Keller is perhaps at his worst here:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">It’s not just that [Obama] has failed to own his successes. He has in a sense failed to define himself. He is one of our more elusive presidents, not deeply rooted in any place or movement. David Remnick’s biography called Obama a shape-shifter. At the fringes, that makes him vulnerable to conspiratorial slanders: he is a socialist, a foreign imposter, a jihadist, an adherent of black liberation theology.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Well, Obama did attend a church based on black liberation theology for 20 years. Under Bill Keller’s leadership, the New York Times did its best to ignore the story, to avoid the sort of religious vetting that Keller has argued should be standard for presidential candidates. Barack Obama touted his “blank screen” quality in The Audacity of Hope, yet in 2008, Keller and his fellow travelers in the establishment media did little to fill in the blanks Keller now complains about. I know teenagers with a better sense of self-responsibility than Bill Keller. </div>Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-12544709665005811932011-09-20T11:16:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:44:44.773+05:30Palin’s smarter than people think, says — Ralph Nader<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-AeJ69tKOdcI/Tngofr_sNUI/AAAAAAAAAHE/FZAIdU3pVps/s1600/mr4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="203" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-AeJ69tKOdcI/Tngofr_sNUI/AAAAAAAAAHE/FZAIdU3pVps/s320/mr4.jpg" width="240" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Almost two weeks ago, I noted that the New York Times seemed shocked, shocked that Sarah Palin had suddenly turned into an anti-establishment conservative populist in a Labor Day weekend speech in Iowa. The Gray Lady wasn’t the only media outlet who missed, well, almost all of Palin’s political career. Salon’s Justin Elliott was so stunned by the speech that he turned to Ralph Nader to analyze the sudden new direction taken by Palin. Nader pronounced himself impressed:</div><a name='more'></a><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">We decided to call the longtime left crusader about a speech Palin gave in Iowa earlier this month, one which seemed to mark the transformation of Palin from a standard-issue movement conservative to something more independent and more reformist. And Nader told us he liked what he heard.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">“I think she’s a lot smarter than most people credit her,” says Nader. “Judging by her comments, she is squarely in the camp of conservative populism, opposed to corporatism and its corporate state.”</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Palin delivered the speech in question in Indianola, Iowa, on Sept. 3. As Anand Giridharadas later observed in the Times, the media responded primarily by “ignoring the ideas she unfurled and dwelling almost entirely on the will-she-won’t-she question of her presidential ambitions.”</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">What were the “new” ideas again?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But there was also some refreshingly new material. She described a “permanent political class,” one that is hypocritical and devoted to personally profiting off of government. (“Seven of the 10 wealthiest counties are suburbs of Washington, D.C.,” she noted.) She spoke of “the collusion of big government and big business and big finance.” And she took aim at both parties for governing in service of their big campaign contributors.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">This sounded to us like Nader. And Nader agreed.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Er, new? Only if one’s attention to Palin was restricted to the relative costs of tanning beds and her 2008 campaign wardrobe. Palin has not just talked about fighting the establishment, she has done it throughout her political career. She fought corruption in the Alaska GOP, and she defeated one of the state’s political dynasties, the Murkowskis, to win her term as governor. Palin did that while talking constantly about breaking the bonds between big business and big government.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Bear in mind that Palin drew an avalanche of media attention in the summer and fall of 2008, with dozens of reporters descending on Wasilla looking for background on Palin. Actually, “background” is too nice a word for it; they were looking for dirt. More than three years after getting named to the GOP ticket in 2008, the national media is just now getting around to noticing that Palin isn’t just some rube, but is a grassroots activist with years of both rhetoric and accomplishment in fighting the establishment. So much for a vibrant, objective national media, eh?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And just like when the NYT suddenly discovered Palin’s anti-establishment cred, I suspect that the newfound respect from Nader and Salon doesn’t have much to do with surprise as it does with trying to take a few indirect shots at the Republicans running for President. If Palin does toss her hat in the ring, don’t expect this late media infatuation with Palin as a smart crusader to last very long.</div>Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-88223467217457272832011-09-20T11:14:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:44:44.795+05:30Fast & Furious: FBI may have covered up third gun found at scene of agent’s death to protect informant<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-PP_aEguxca8/TngnBD2pdcI/AAAAAAAAAG8/d9u0A3KSF10/s1600/mr4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="186" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-PP_aEguxca8/TngnBD2pdcI/AAAAAAAAAG8/d9u0A3KSF10/s320/mr4.jpg" width="240" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Two new pieces of the puzzle here, one published 10 days ago and the other just this afternoon. We already knew that Border Patrol agent Brian Terry was murdered in December with two AK-47s sold by the ATF through the F&F operation. That’s what broke the scandal open, of course — American law enforcement gunned down with weapons ingeniously provided to Mexican drug cartels by … American law enforcement. What we didn’t know until recently is that there might have been more than two guns recovered at the scene. Enter CBS brandishing a snippet of audio between an ATF agent and the gun dealer who assisted the ATF in selling those AK-47s that points to three guns having been found. Why didn’t we know that? Because the legal filings in the case took care not to mention it:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"></div><a name='more'></a><br /><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">Court records have previously only mentioned two weapons: Romanian WASR “AK-47 type” assault rifles. Both were allegedly sold to suspects who were under ATF’s watch as part of Fast and Furious.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Also, a ballistics report turned over to Congressional investigators only mentions the two WASR rifles. The ballistics report says it’s inconclusive as to whether either of the WASR rifles fired the bullet that killed Terry.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Law enforcement sources and others close to the Congressional investigation say the Justice Department’s Inspector General obtained the audio tapes [between the ATF agent and the dealer] several months ago as part of its investigation into Fast and Furious.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Then, the sources say for some reason the Inspector General passed the tapes along to the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Arizona: a subject in the investigation. It’s unclear why the Inspector General, who is supposed to investigate independently, would turn over evidence to an entity that is itself under investigation.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Inspector General’s office claims it had to provide the U.S. Attorney with the tapes in case they were legally obliged to disclose them to the defense in the course of prosecuting the gun traffickers. Krazy kwestion: Why would you bother covering up the existence of a third gun — which wasn’t linked to F&F — when you’d already acknowledged the existence of the other two? Fox News’s report from September 9 has the answer:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Sources say emails support their contention that the FBI concealed evidence to protect a confidential informant. Sources close to the Terry case say the FBI informant works inside a major Mexican cartel and provided the money to obtain the weapons used to kill Terry.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Unlike the two AK-style assault weapons found at the scene, the third weapon could more easily be linked to the informant. To prevent that from happening, sources say, the third gun “disappeared.”…</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Sources say the informants previously worked for the DEA and U.S. Marshall’s Office but their contracts were terminated because the men were “stone-cold killers.” The FBI however stopped their scheduled deportation because their high ranks within the cartel were useful…</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Asked about the content of the emails, a former federal prosecutor who viewed them expressed shock.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">“I have never seen anything like this. I can see the FBI may have an informant involved but I can’t see them tampering with evidence. If this is all accurate, I’m stunned,” the former prosecutor said.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Note well: According to the ballistics tests, neither of the F&F AK-47s can conclusively be said to have fired the shot that killed Terry. Does that mean … the gun linked to the FBI’s informant fired it? Is that why it mysteriously disappeared from the legal record? And another question, per blogger Mike Vanderboegh as quoted in the Fox piece: If both the FBI and the ATF are involved in the Fast & Furious investigation, and by “involved in” I mean “withholding relevant information from,” who’s the higher-up at the DOJ that’s overseeing all of this?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Two videos, first the audio from CBS and then Fox’s report.</div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><br /><embed allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" background="#333333" flashvars="si=254&contentValue=50111777&shareUrl=http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7381609n" height="279" src="http://cnettv.cnet.com/av/video/cbsnews/atlantis2/cbsnews_player_embed.swf" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425"></embed><br /><br /><br /><br /><script src="http://video.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id=1151445471001&w=466&h=263" type="text/javascript"></script><noscript>Watch the latest video at &lt;a href="http://video.foxnews.com"&gt;video.foxnews.com&lt;/a&gt;</noscript>Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-20218006658809710982011-09-20T11:08:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:44:44.813+05:30Obama: I’ll veto any bill that isn’t “balanced” with tax hikes<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GZDAn5zIYnE/TngmpeBVC4I/AAAAAAAAAG0/RHqOgkkOkJg/s1600/mr4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="210" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GZDAn5zIYnE/TngmpeBVC4I/AAAAAAAAAG0/RHqOgkkOkJg/s320/mr4.jpg" width="250" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">He’s got a deficit-reduction package that can’t clear the House, thanks to massive new tax hikes that everyone knows are a deal-killer. He has a jobs package that can’t clear the Senate. What’s a President to do? Threaten a veto:</div><a name='more'></a><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">President Obama warned he will veto any deficit plan brought to him by Congress that wasn’t ‘balanced’ between taxes and spending cuts.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">‘We are not going to have a one-sided deal that hurts the folks who are most vulnerable,’ Obama said Monday morning, speaking from the Rose Garden.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">He rejected accusations that tax increases for the wealthy was ‘class warfare’.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The president argued, as he has repeatedly, that wealthier Americans ‘shouldn’t get a better deal than ordinary families.’.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">“This is not class warfare, it’s math. The money’s going to have to come from some place,” the president said, speaking to reporters. “If we’re not willing to ask those who’ve done extraordinarily well to help America close the deficit, the logic, the math says everybody else has to do a whole lot more. “</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">What’s so surprising about this rhetoric is how unsurprising it is. Obama has been making this same exact argument for years, starting in the 2008 campaign, but accelerating last year. Obama made the exact same argument — and veto threat, too — just before caving in December 2010 and agreeing to extend the Bush-era tax rates.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The threat is as empty as the rhetoric. Let’s say for argument’s sake that the House and Senate passed a bill that accomplished significant deficit reduction through entitlement reform without Obama’s John Edwards-like Two Americas tax policy. Does anyone believe that Obama would veto a bill backed by both a Republican House and a Democratic Senate? Would Obama really want to make himself look like the least bipartisan political leader in Washington DC? There isn’t a chance in Hades that he would veto such a bill, even though getting such a bill to the White House would have almost as small a chance in the first place.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">With even his own party insisting that they’re not going to bite on more spending and higher taxes, Obama’s already starting to isolate himself on economic policy. He issued this warning in a sad attempt to impress a few people on the Left with his “leadership,” but issuing empty threats isn’t real leadership. It’s an expression of political impotence.</div>Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-49653997364702015032011-09-20T11:06:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:44:44.830+05:30Question for Palestinian president: Why embarrass Obama by forcing this statehood bid at the UN?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_OSBgE_peCQ/TngmNim8ZGI/AAAAAAAAAGs/kGUuTd_QEjY/s1600/mr4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="171" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_OSBgE_peCQ/TngmNim8ZGI/AAAAAAAAAGs/kGUuTd_QEjY/s320/mr4.jpg" width="240" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The vote’s on Friday. Hillary, Tony Blair, and other diplomats have been frantically negotiating with them for the past week to get them to reconsider — but so far, Abbas won’t bend. Gosh, I wonder why.</div><a name='more'></a><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">A poll released Monday by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research found 83 percent of Palestinians support the unilateral declaration, and half of respondents said they would join any demonstrations that might break out in its wake.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Elsewhere in the Arab world, the prevailing sentiment is similar.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The website NOW Lebanon carried an unsigned editorial Monday asking, “Is this the Palestinian role in the so-called Arab awakening? Perhaps. The mood in the region has changed, and the Arab street appears to have teeth for once.”…</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Also Monday, Beirut’s Daily Star newspaper editorialized, “Any world leader that claims to support aborted Israeli-Palestinian negotiations while opposing the latter’s bid for statehood is either a liar or a coward. Those seeking a way out of Palestine’s application are rapidly losing the benefit of the doubt.”</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The west’s latest plan is some sort of compromise that would call for new negotiations to restart within a month based on the ’67-borders-with-land-swaps scheme, plus official recognition of Israel as a Jewish state and a “lesser resolution” at the UN that wouldn’t quite call for Palestinian statehood but would grant them new international privileges. (Hillary’s meeting with Russia’s envoy tonight to see if they’ll sign on to make it a formal offer from the so-called “Quarter.”) Question: Can Abbas settle for that at this point when pretty much the entire Arab world is behind his brinksmanship? Answer: Can Abbas not settle for that given that the statehood ploy might very well backfire and end up benefiting his archenemies in Hamas?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The potential loss in American aid to the PA as a result of the bid could have serious fallout for the fledgling economy of the West Bank, and may undermine both state-building efforts and public confidence in the PA. The US, which currently contributes approximately $500 million in much-needed annual aid to the PA, objects to the statehood bid on the grounds that it subverts the negotiation process with Israel, and has threatened to withdraw or severely curtail these funds if the PA goes to the UN this month. Palestinians in the West Bank got a taste of what may be to come this summer, when a short-fall in aid from Arab countries prevented the PA from paying civil servants their full salaries…</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The fact remains that Palestinian independence is dependent upon a negotiated settlement with Israel, and the UN campaign has made it even less likely that Israel will return to negotiations any time soon. When Palestinians realise that a changed UN status has delayed or even hindered progress towards independence, Fatah could be – potentially fatally – discredited, and Hamas emboldened.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Indeed, Hamas may seek to channel popular anger into acts of violence which could culminate in another civil war between Fatah and Hamas, or even a third intifada. With their Syrian patrons possibly on the verge of collapse, Hamas will have a particularly strong incentive to re-assert themselves as the party of resistance.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In fine Palestinian form, he’s now backed himself into a corner where he risks being catastrophically discredited no matter what happens. The only other world pol with as much to lose on Friday is, of course, The One, who may be forced to veto the Palestinians’ statehood bid in the Security Council unless he can get a majority of the other members to abstain. (In fact, the PA has been using a line from one of Obama’s UN speeches as support for its cause.) Doing that would singlehandedly defeat the purpose of intervening in Libya, which was designed to show young Arabs that the U.S. was now on their side after decades of propping up their oppressors. In a flash, the narrative would change from “America helps free Libya” to “America crushes Palestinian dream”; I wonder if even our new Islamist “friends” in Tripoli and Benghazi would use it as a pretext to turn on us. Abbas is betting, I assume, that even if he detonates U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East by forcing a veto, we’ll be so desperate to retain some goodwill among Arab states that we’ll keep the foreign aid flowing to the Palestinian Authority anyway. Either that or he really, honestly, truly believes that Obama won’t have the stones to veto the bid if it comes to that. Note to Abbas: Guess again.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Exit question: If this all goes to pot and we end up cutting the PA’s aid, who’ll fill the vacuum? Will it be Turkey, ever eager to exploit hatred of Israel to expand their influence in the region? Or will it be this degenerate, who’s hardly bothering to dress his anti-semitic tropes up in thinly veiled “anti-Zionist” code anymore?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><script src="http://video.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id=1167958566001&w=466&h=263" type="text/javascript"></script><noscript>Watch the latest video at &amp;amp;lt;a href="http://video.foxnews.com"&amp;amp;gt;video.foxnews.com&amp;amp;lt;/a&amp;amp;gt;</noscript></div>Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-10396174356717076642011-09-20T11:03:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:44:44.850+05:30Gallup: Perry 31, Romney 24, Paul 13, Bachmann … 5<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-T8bxJjf7zzw/Tngl-Do9ozI/AAAAAAAAAGk/Dd6MSspef-Y/s1600/mr4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="182" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-T8bxJjf7zzw/Tngl-Do9ozI/AAAAAAAAAGk/Dd6MSspef-Y/s320/mr4.jpg" width="240" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">A good poll for Romney, a mediocre one for Perry, and pure devastation for Bachmann. She was at 13 percent in early August, shortly before Perry jumped in, and 10 percent in late August. Now she’s tied with Cain and Gingrich for fourth place, a good eight points behind, um, Ron Paul. Game over.</div><a name='more'></a><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Perry is stronger among Republicans and independents who lean Republican, the voters who settle nominations. In a head-to-head race, 49% say they would vote for Perry, 39% for Romney…</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In the poll, 44% say they definitely would not vote for Perry; 35% say that of Romney. Looked at another way, 62% say would either definitely vote for Romney or consider doing so; 53% say that of Perry.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Perry has increased his standing a bit, compared with results from Gallup’s daily poll in late August, but Romney has narrowed the gap between them. Then, Perry led Romney, 29%-17%. His 12-point margin is down to 7 points…</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In the poll, 53% say they would prefer the nominee with the best chance of beating Obama; 43% say they want the candidate who agrees with them on almost all issues.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The boldface bit tells you why this is a good poll for Romney and only a mediocre one for Perry. (That plus the fact that Romney’s gained ground since last time, natch.) Head to head, Mitt leads Obama by two but Perry trails by five; the more numbers like that we see, the more Romney can capitalize on the majority of primary voters who are leaning towards electability in their desperation to oust Obama. The other takeaway from this, I think, is that Perry’s window to steamroll the rest of the field is now closed. If he had had two monster debate performances and widened his lead over Romney, you might see more big donors starting to shake loose and fall into his camp as the inevitable nominee. As it is, Palin must be watching his backsliding and Bachmann’s collapse and feeling more encouraged to run than ever. Still plenty of tea-party votes in play, and who knows how much of Perry’s support is owed not to his jobs record or any personal attribute but simply to him being a “true conservative” alternative to Romney. Palin, having a stronger brand, can pull some of those votes and make it a three-way race. Even if she falls short against Romney on electability grounds, by topping Perry she’d preserve her status as America’s most prominent tea-party pol.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">One other point about electability. I’ve been meaning to post about this since last week but might as well toss it in here. How much do Democrats fear a Perry presidency? Maybe this much:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">[G]iven these growing fears that Obama may lose in 2012 to any Republican with a pulse, maybe it’s time for Democrats to stop hoping that Perry will be the next Barry Goldwater. There’s admittedly not much they can do to shape the outcome of the presidential primaries, but they might wish to think twice before using their rapid-response teams to help Perry bury Romney.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">One party operative close to these decisions told me there have been a “lot of conversations” about the dilemma, with some labor and environmental groups arguing for easing up on the anti-Romney message machine out of a belief that he would be the “lesser of two evils.”</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Good thinking. If Obama is doomed, who would Democrats rather have in possession of the nuclear suitcase: the technocratic Romney, or the coyote-shooting Perry?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">That’s practically a campaign ad for Perry in the primaries, not only according to “they’ll tell you who they fear” logic but as a knife in Romney’s electability argument. If Democrats are so desperately worried about The One losing to Perry in the general that they’d ease up on Romney to help him win the nomination, how unelectable can he be? Right, Perry ad team?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Here’s the sadly obligatory “Paul Gigot thinks Christie is still thinking about running” clip, which as far as I know is completely unsupported by any evidence that Christie really is thinking about running. In fact, in the entire course of the months-long “Christie for president” saga, I can’t recall a single syllable uttered by the man himself encouraging people to believe he might consider it. Ah well. The filing deadline to get on the ballot is next month, I believe, so this’ll all be over soon. Just a few more stories here and there to endure about Mitch Daniels or Paul Ryan moping about the state of the field and then we can concentrate on the race as is.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><script src="http://video.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id=1166353024001&w=466&h=263" type="text/javascript"></script><noscript>Watch the latest video at &amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;a href="http://video.foxnews.com"&amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;video.foxnews.com&amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/a&amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;</noscript></div>Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-30004951080679504522011-09-20T10:59:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:44:44.865+05:30Quotes of the day<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2VdixQrniAc/TnglGrvE5MI/AAAAAAAAAGU/XwiloobMcRg/s1600/mr4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="175" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2VdixQrniAc/TnglGrvE5MI/AAAAAAAAAGU/XwiloobMcRg/s320/mr4.jpg" width="240" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">“President Barack Obama struck a confrontational tone with Republicans as he attended a high-dollar fund-raiser Monday night on Park Avenue.</div><a name='more'></a><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">“‘We are in a battle — a battle for the hearts and minds of America,’ Obama told about 60 guests who anted up $35,800 each to attend the dinner. ‘This is going to be a tough fight over the next 16 months.’…</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">“‘We have not had a willing partner,’ Obama said.”</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">***</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">“So here we are back at the same old political stand, though even Mr. Obama concedes that today those he routinely calls ‘millionaires and billionaires’ pay at least some tax. The President’s complaint, echoing billionaire Warren Buffett, is that too many billionaires pay a lower rate than regular salary earners. So even as he endorsed tax reform in general yesterday, Mr. Obama insisted that one of his reform ‘principles’ is that people who make more than $1 million must pay a higher tax rate than middle-class earners.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">“There’s one small problem: The entire Buffett Rule premise is false, as the nearby table shows. In 2008, the last year for which such data are available, the IRS reports that those who made more than $1 million in adjusted gross income paid an average income tax rate of 23.3%.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">“That’s slightly lower than the 24.1% rate paid by those making between $500,000 and $1 million, probably because the richest are like Mr. Buffett and earn more from capital gains and dividends. The rate for a relative handful of the rich—400 people—fell to 18%, the modern equivalent of Barr’s Gang of 21. But nearly all millionaires still paid a rate that is more than twice the 8.9% average rate paid by those earning between $50,000 and $100,000, and more than three times the 7.2% average rate paid by those earning less than $50,000. The larger point is that the claim that CEOs are routinely paying lower tax rates than their secretaries is Omaha hokum.”</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">***</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">“President Obama has tried for months to convince critics on the left that entitlement programs such as Medicare had to be cut in order to save the programs, but he seems to have yielded under pressure from his political base.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">“In his new $1.5 trillion deficit-cutting plan, unveiled Monday at the White House, Obama backed away from the changes he had been talking about for months.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">“Those changes had been part of Obama’s pitch as recently as Sept. 8, when in his speech to a joint session of Congress Obama called for changes to the popular insurance program for Americans age 65 and over…</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">“‘He’s pulled way back on those proposals specifically on Medicare, Medicaid,’ says Alison Fraser of the conservative Heritage Foundation, ‘Even on Social Security, which at one point was in the mix, now it’s completely off the table. So it’s a disappointing step, rather than an encouraging one.’”</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">***</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">“When the president unveiled the second half of his stimulus it became clear that this package has nothing to do with helping people right away or averting a double dip. This is a campaign marker, not a jobs bill…</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">“This wasn’t a speech to get something done. This was the sort of speech that sounded better when Ted Kennedy was delivering it. The result is that we will get neither short-term stimulus nor long-term debt reduction anytime soon, and I’m a sap for thinking it was possible.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">“Yes, I’m a sap. I believed Obama when he said he wanted to move beyond the stale ideological debates that have paralyzed this country. I always believe that Obama is on the verge of breaking out of the conventional categories and embracing one of the many bipartisan reform packages that are floating around…</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">“The White House has decided to wage the campaign as fighting liberals. I guess I understand the choice, but I still believe in the governing style Obama talked about in 2008. I may be the last one. I’m a sap.”</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">***</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><object style="height: 390px; width: 640px;"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/RRl-AzugWSs?version=3"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/RRl-AzugWSs?version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="640" height="390"></object></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Via RCP.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><object style="height: 390px; width: 640px;"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/vqxnbPaB37A?version=3"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/vqxnbPaB37A?version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="640" height="390"></object></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Click the image to watch.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><object data="http://www.therightscoop.com/wp-content/plugins/html5-and-flash-video-player/mediaplayer/player.swf" height="325" id="video0" name="video0" style="visibility: visible;" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="400"><param value="true" name="allowfullscreen"><param value="always" name="allowscriptaccess"><param value="transparent" name="wmode"><param value="file=http://videos.videopress.com/KQXkuUlf/krauthammer_obamadebtreductionplan_std.mp4&image=http://videos.videopress.com/KQXkuUlf/krauthammer_obamadebtreductionplan_std.original.jpg&width=400&height=325&controlbar=bottom&dock=false&icons=true&logo.hide=false&logo.position=bottom-left&playlist=none&autostart=false&bufferlength=1&item=0&mute=false&repeat=none&shuffle=false&smoothing=true&stretching=uniform&volume=50" name="flashvars"></object></div><div style="text-align: justify;">From August 2009.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><object style="height: 390px; width: 640px;"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/aufAtuTwKlE?version=3"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/aufAtuTwKlE?version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="640" height="390"></object></div>Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-62950179248591197142011-09-20T10:53:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:44:44.881+05:30Gallup: Perry 31, Romney 24, Paul 13, Bachmann … 5<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zkEopmdtmew/TngjFQZaG1I/AAAAAAAAAGM/cca_Tp1yCwE/s1600/mr4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="175" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zkEopmdtmew/TngjFQZaG1I/AAAAAAAAAGM/cca_Tp1yCwE/s320/mr4.jpg" width="240" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">A good poll for Romney, a mediocre one for Perry, and pure devastation for Bachmann. She was at 13 percent in early August, shortly before Perry jumped in, and 10 percent in late August. Now she’s tied with Cain and Gingrich for fourth place, a good eight points behind, um, Ron Paul. Game over.</div><a name='more'></a><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Perry is stronger among Republicans and independents who lean Republican, the voters who settle nominations. In a head-to-head race, 49% say they would vote for Perry, 39% for Romney…</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In the poll, 44% say they definitely would not vote for Perry; 35% say that of Romney. Looked at another way, 62% say would either definitely vote for Romney or consider doing so; 53% say that of Perry.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Perry has increased his standing a bit, compared with results from Gallup’s daily poll in late August, but Romney has narrowed the gap between them. Then, Perry led Romney, 29%-17%. His 12-point margin is down to 7 points…</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In the poll, 53% say they would prefer the nominee with the best chance of beating Obama; 43% say they want the candidate who agrees with them on almost all issues.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The boldface bit tells you why this is a good poll for Romney and only a mediocre one for Perry. (That plus the fact that Romney’s gained ground since last time, natch.) Head to head, Mitt leads Obama by two but Perry trails by five; the more numbers like that we see, the more Romney can capitalize on the majority of primary voters who are leaning towards electability in their desperation to oust Obama. The other takeaway from this, I think, is that Perry’s window to steamroll the rest of the field is now closed. If he had had two monster debate performances and widened his lead over Romney, you might see more big donors starting to shake loose and fall into his camp as the inevitable nominee. As it is, Palin must be watching his backsliding and Bachmann’s collapse and feeling more encouraged to run than ever. Still plenty of tea-party votes in play, and who knows how much of Perry’s support is owed not to his jobs record or any personal attribute but simply to him being a “true conservative” alternative to Romney. Palin, having a stronger brand, can pull some of those votes and make it a three-way race. Even if she falls short against Romney on electability grounds, by topping Perry she’d preserve her status as America’s most prominent tea-party pol.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">One other point about electability. I’ve been meaning to post about this since last week but might as well toss it in here. How much do Democrats fear a Perry presidency? Maybe this much:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">[G]iven these growing fears that Obama may lose in 2012 to any Republican with a pulse, maybe it’s time for Democrats to stop hoping that Perry will be the next Barry Goldwater. There’s admittedly not much they can do to shape the outcome of the presidential primaries, but they might wish to think twice before using their rapid-response teams to help Perry bury Romney.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">One party operative close to these decisions told me there have been a “lot of conversations” about the dilemma, with some labor and environmental groups arguing for easing up on the anti-Romney message machine out of a belief that he would be the “lesser of two evils.”</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Good thinking. If Obama is doomed, who would Democrats rather have in possession of the nuclear suitcase: the technocratic Romney, or the coyote-shooting Perry?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">That’s practically a campaign ad for Perry in the primaries, not only according to “they’ll tell you who they fear” logic but as a knife in Romney’s electability argument. If Democrats are so desperately worried about The One losing to Perry in the general that they’d ease up on Romney to help him win the nomination, how unelectable can he be? Right, Perry ad team?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Here’s the sadly obligatory “Paul Gigot thinks Christie is still thinking about running” clip, which as far as I know is completely unsupported by any evidence that Christie really is thinking about running. In fact, in the entire course of the months-long “Christie for president” saga, I can’t recall a single syllable uttered by the man himself encouraging people to believe he might consider it. Ah well. The filing deadline to get on the ballot is next month, I believe, so this’ll all be over soon. Just a few more stories here and there to endure about Mitch Daniels or Paul Ryan moping about the state of the field and then we can concentrate on the race as is.</div><script src="http://video.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id=1166353024001&w=466&h=263" type="text/javascript"></script><noscript>Watch the latest video at &lt;a href="http://video.foxnews.com"&gt;video.foxnews.com&lt;/a&gt;</noscript>Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-11162337817080439882011-09-19T12:35:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:32:14.795+05:30GBP Falls for Fourth Week, Quantitative Easing Expected<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6JRhln1Q8D8/Tnbpvv663WI/AAAAAAAAAGA/NdcF5AyF3kQ/s1600/Pound.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="107" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6JRhln1Q8D8/Tnbpvv663WI/AAAAAAAAAGA/NdcF5AyF3kQ/s320/Pound.jpg" width="143" /></a></div>The Great Britain pound posted the fourth straight weekly decline against the US dollar and the Japanese yen as the fundamental data signaled that the nation’s economy is stagnating, prompting the speculation the UK central bank will be required to embark on a quantitative easing.<br /><a name='more'></a><br /><br />There was enough data this week to support the negative outlook for the future of Britain’s economy. The RICS UK Housing Market Survey showed 23 percent more surveyors recorded falling rather than rising prices in August, while the house price index of the Department for Communities and Local Government dropped 1.5 percent in July. The retail sales shrank 0.2 percent in August, according to the government report. The economy continues to feel the inflationary pressure as the inflation increased to 4.5 percent in August from 4.4 percent in the month before.<br /><br />Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne and Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg spoke about the possibility of increasing the monetary stimulus to support Britain’s economy. Bank of England policy maker Adam Posen said the central bank should purchase as much as £100 billion in securities over the next three months. Analysts think that the BoE may expand their asset purchase program, the policy known as a quantitative easing, as early as November. Currently the program worth £200 billion.<br /><br />GBP/USD fell from 1.5831 to 1.5786 during this week. GBP/JPY slipped from 122.62 to 121.19 and EUR/GBP rose from 0.8579 to 0.8740 over the week.<br /><br />If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Great Britain Pound, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-58028285462452761572011-09-19T12:33:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:32:14.808+05:30Canadian Securities Drive Canadian Dollar to Two-Week Record<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NjZ2i1Q0TE8/TnbpUnxMw3I/AAAAAAAAAF4/8zNNFenyCyk/s1600/Canadian_Dollar.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="82" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NjZ2i1Q0TE8/TnbpUnxMw3I/AAAAAAAAAF4/8zNNFenyCyk/s320/Canadian_Dollar.jpg" width="123" /></a></div>The Canadian dollar jumped today, reaching the highest level in two weeks against its US counterpart and the Japanese yen, as foreign investors bought more Canadian securities than was predicted.<br /><a name='more'></a><br /><br />The purchases of the Canadian securities by foreign investors rose by C$11.8 billion ($12 billion) in July. That’s much better than the median forecast of C$2 billion and a huge improvement over June decline by C$3.4 billion. The MSCI World Index of stocks gained 0.6 percent, advancing for the fourth consecutive session.<br /><br />The loonie (the nickname of the Canadian currency) advanced 1.9 percent over this week against the greenback, showing the biggest gain since July. The Canadian dollar rose even as fears about Europe intensified. Some analysts think that traders began to consider Canada’s currency as a haven from the crisis in the European Union. In such case the loonie can appreciate in times of uncertainty, even being “commodity” currency.<br /><br />USD/CAD slumped from 0.9833 to the closing price of 0.9779, the lowest level since September 2, while during the trading session the currency pair advanced to 0.9859. EUR/CAD tumbled from 1.3647 to 1.3493. CAD/JPY climbed from 77.91 to close at 78.45, while intraday it reached 78.52, the highest price since September 2.<br /><br />If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Canadian Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-85104641884434806882011-09-19T12:31:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:32:14.832+05:30Aussie Rises on Asian Stocks, Heads to Weekly Loss<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rsHE8Ug-Jp0/TnbolHdEnfI/AAAAAAAAAFo/DiJh3MowWDw/s1600/Australian_Dollar.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rsHE8Ug-Jp0/TnbolHdEnfI/AAAAAAAAAFo/DiJh3MowWDw/s1600/Australian_Dollar.jpg" /></a></div>The Australian dollar advanced today against the US dollar and the euro as the Asian stocks climbed, but the currency is still heading to a weekly decline as concerns about the European economy sapped appeal of higher-yielding currencies.<br /><br /><a name='more'></a><br /><br />The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares climbed 2.1 percent, while the MSCI World Index jumped 2.1 percent yesterday. Investors bet that Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens will cut the interest rates by at least 75 basis points by December. Currently, the key rate in Australia stands at 4.75 percent.<br /><br />AUD/USD rose from 1.0326 to 1.0362 and EUR/AUD dropped from 1.3432 to 1.3290 as of 14:59 GMT.<br /><br />If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Australian Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-10583274711169516602011-09-19T12:29:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:32:14.843+05:30Rand Falls as Investors Shun South African Bonds<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7Om4UDJ_1Gs/TnboWwD4CoI/AAAAAAAAAFg/RdpmgLvbm_I/s1600/ZAR.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="75" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7Om4UDJ_1Gs/TnboWwD4CoI/AAAAAAAAAFg/RdpmgLvbm_I/s320/ZAR.jpg" width="131" /></a></div>The South African rand dropped today as the optimism about the European banking system quickly waned, spurring investors to draw money out of riskier assets.<br /><a name='more'></a><br /><br />The global funds sold $1.4 billion of South African bonds on September 13 and 14. That’s the biggest two-day selling since October 2008. Economists are concerned that the selling can lead to higher current account deficit in South Africa as the current account was finance for the most part by the bonds inflows.<br /><br />USD/ZAR rose from 7.376 to 7.3830 today as of 13:20 GMT. Today’s low was 7.3440 and high was 7.431.<br /><br />If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the South African Rand, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-21665000305533071392011-09-19T12:28:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:32:14.855+05:30Mixed Fundamentals Leave Traders Uncertain, USD Fluctuates<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9f4CDHYqvyU/Tnbn-z0HdTI/AAAAAAAAAFY/Lez6epQwNrA/s1600/US_Dollar.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="94" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9f4CDHYqvyU/Tnbn-z0HdTI/AAAAAAAAAFY/Lez6epQwNrA/s320/US_Dollar.jpg" width="143" /></a></div>The US dollar fluctuated as the mixed fundamental data left Forex traders uncertain will the US economy face recovery or recession. The currency was falling yesterday, but at the start of today’s trading session the dollar rebounded.<br /><br /><a name='more'></a><br /><br />There was plenty of good news. The consumer price index rose 0.4 percent in August, compared with the median forecast of 0.2 percent. The current account deficit decreased to $118.0 billion (preliminary) in the second quarter of 2011, from $119.6 billion in the first quarter, instead of widening to $122.0 billion as was expected. Industrial production advanced 0.2 percent in August.<br /><br />There were enough bad news, though. The jobless claims increased from 417,000 to 428,000 last week. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey and the Business Outlook Survey of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showed that manufacturing conditions in the US worsened in September.<br /><br />EUR/USD fell from 1.3875 to 1.3852 today as of 2:32 GMT after it rose yesterday from 1.3754 to 1.3875. GBP/USD traded near 1.5794, following yesterday’s rally from 1.5770 to 1.5798. USD/JPY traded at 76.78 after opening at 76.68.<br /><br />If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the US Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-55825290531798127992011-09-19T12:26:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:32:14.868+05:30SNB Maintains Rates at Zero, Franc Strengthens<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lK2vAWdEhxo/TnbnjnLO6qI/AAAAAAAAAFQ/uqCVgx8KuGY/s1600/Swiss_Franc.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="70" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lK2vAWdEhxo/TnbnjnLO6qI/AAAAAAAAAFQ/uqCVgx8KuGY/s320/Swiss_Franc.jpg" width="143" /></a></div>The Swiss franc rose today even after the Swiss National Bank left the benchmark interest rate at zero at pledged to maintain the peg of the nation’s currency to the euro.<br /><br /><a name='more'></a><br /><br />The central bank wrote in the monetary policy assessment:<br /><br />The Swiss National Bank will enforce the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro set on 6 September with the utmost determination. It is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities. It continues to aim for a three-month Libor at zero and will maintain total sight deposits at the SNB at significantly above CHF 200 billion.<br /><br />The SNB set the ceiling to the franc at 1.20 per euro on September 6 and the Swiss currency weakened considerably since. But the Swissie started to rise last week and the monetary policy decision of the SNB hasn’t deterred the currency. The central bank predicted that the economic growth may stall in the second half of this year. The inflation forecast for the third quarter of 2011 was cut from 1.4 percent to 0.4 percent.<br /><br />USD/CHF fell from 0.8758 to 0.8706 as of 23:02 GMT today and touched the low of 0.8653 intraday. CHF/JPY climbed from 87.46 to 88.72 before trading at 88.10.<br /><br />If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Swiss Franc, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-82157345813586308142011-09-19T12:25:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:32:14.880+05:30Europe Helps Oil & Russian Ruble<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-D1i6DxTb0Os/TnbnHVhtr0I/AAAAAAAAAFI/_LkcAllp6sw/s1600/Russian_Ruble.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="62" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-D1i6DxTb0Os/TnbnHVhtr0I/AAAAAAAAAFI/_LkcAllp6sw/s320/Russian_Ruble.gif" width="140" /></a></div>The Russian ruble climbed today, rebounding from the lowest level in eight months against the US dollar, as crude oil gained and the European Central Bank announced its plans to boost liquidity, bolstering risk appetite.<br /><a name='more'></a><br /><br />Crude oil jumped 1.4 percent to $90.02 per barrel in New York, rebounding for the previous drop to $88.01 per barrel. Crude is the major source of Russia’s export revenue. Futures on Brent crude oil rose 2.4 percent to $115.06 per barrel in London. Traders trimmed their bets that the ruble will weaken further.<br /><br />USD/RUB fell from 30.4465 to 30.4160 today as of 17:39 GMT. The daily low was 30.2345 and the daily high was 30.5719.<br /><br />If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Russian Ruble, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-59294779404168562932011-09-19T12:23:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:32:14.894+05:30Rand Rebounds on ECB Efforts<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Hjd5vn4KaGw/TnbmyKZCt9I/AAAAAAAAAFA/HRNrcY7kRHQ/s1600/ZAR.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="75" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Hjd5vn4KaGw/TnbmyKZCt9I/AAAAAAAAAFA/HRNrcY7kRHQ/s320/ZAR.jpg" width="131" /></a></div>The South African rand strengthened today as the European Central Bank announced it’s planning to lend dollar to the European bank in an effort to support the European banking system and to boost liquidity.<br /><br /><a name='more'></a><br /><br />The ECB announced it’s going to perform liquidity operations in tandem with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Japan of Bank and the Swiss National Bank. The effort of the central banks reduced concerns about the Eurozone banking system. Analysts think that the optimism may be short-live, but for now it bolstered riskier assets, including the rand.<br /><br />USD/ZAR fell from 7.3730 to 7.3710 as of 17:10 GMT. Today’s intraday high was 7.460 and the intraday low was 7.3120.<br /><br />If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the South African Rand, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-48105915323951974712011-09-19T12:22:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:32:14.909+05:30Canadian Dollar Within Cent of Parity with Greenback<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qvNCDgEqWQc/TnbmQoN64qI/AAAAAAAAAE4/nRgMjm82Qe4/s1600/Canadian_Dollar.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="82" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qvNCDgEqWQc/TnbmQoN64qI/AAAAAAAAAE4/nRgMjm82Qe4/s320/Canadian_Dollar.jpg" width="123" /></a></div>The Canadian dollar fell today, trading within one cent of parity with the US dollar, as copper and crude oil prices declined on the signs the global economic recovery is faltering.<br /><a name='more'></a><br /><br />Crude oil, the key Canadian export fell to $88.54 per barrel in New York, while copper dropped 1.6 percent to $8,630 per metric ton. Some other raw materials, including lead, tin and zinc, also declined. The retail sales in the US, the biggest trading partner of Canada, unexpectedly stalled last month, posting no change in August instead of the expected increase by 0.2 percent.<br /><br />The losses of the loonie (the nickname of the Canadian currency) may be trimmed as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy stated after speaking with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou by phone they’re convinced Greece will remain in the Eurozone. But for now the currency continue its downfall as prospects of slower growth in Asia added to concerns about the economies of the US and Europe.<br /><br />USD/CAD rose from 0.9891 to 0.9935 today as of 4:17 GMT. EUR/CAD advanced from 1.3604 to 1.3634. CAD/JPY fell from 77.41 to 77.12.<br /><br />If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Canadian Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-76383755120868961002011-04-25T02:32:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:51:15.466+05:30Interest Rates Outlook Causes Weekly Slump of Dollar, ForexThe US dollar was performing terribly this week against both commodity and safe currencies among signs of economic growth and on speculation that the Federal Reserve will lag with an increase of the interest rates.<br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=3090989665515961434" name="more"></a><br /><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5261344205943180850" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_E6XfbXVvFNI/SQQMrfRNjjI/AAAAAAAAMNM/RwW77lONwx0/s100/nun7.jpg" style="display: none;" /><br /><a name='more'></a><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Qw8MAmMMy8Q/TbM8M5lucAI/AAAAAAAAAFg/AluqoypvoBk/s1600/US_Dollar.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="94" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Qw8MAmMMy8Q/TbM8M5lucAI/AAAAAAAAAFg/AluqoypvoBk/s320/US_Dollar.jpg" width="143" /></a></div>The bad performance of the US currency against its safe-haven counterparts was expected, but the drop versus currencies linked to growth wasn’t anticipated. The persisting Europe’s problems with sovereign debt should’ve spurred the greenback against commodity currencies, but that hasn’t happened. It’s surprising to see how easily markets shook off fears of the European crisis and restored their risk appetite.<br /><br />The strength of commodity currencies against the dollar has the same explanation as before: the global recovery. The US economy itself provided very the confusing signs: while its weak housing market turned out to be better than it was considered, the growth of manufacturing, the one of the strongest US sectors, slowed significantly and unexpectedly. As for performance versus other currencies, analysts remind us about the same old story: the quantitative easing. The US policy makers started talking about an end to the accommodative stance, but talks aren’t enough when other banks, most notably the European Central Bank and Sweden’s Riksbank, already began raising their borrowing costs.<br /><br />EUR/USD has broken its resistance and jumped from 1.4411 to 1.4647, the highest level since December 2009, over the week, closing at 1.4559. USD/JPY fell from 83.21 to 81.85. USD/SEK closed at 6.1034 after opening at 6.1930 and reaching 6.0717, the lowest level since August 2008.<br /><br />If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the US Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.<br /><br /><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_E6XfbXVvFNI/SQQMrfRNjjI/AAAAAAAAMNM/RwW77lONwx0/s1600-h/nun7.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5261344205943180850" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_E6XfbXVvFNI/SQQMrfRNjjI/AAAAAAAAMNM/RwW77lONwx0/s400/nun7.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 400px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 289px;" /></a>She is Thai sexy actress and popular model, Woranuch Wongsawan. Her nickname is Noon. Noon is one of the famous actress and model in Thailand. She was born in 1980 and studied at College of Nathasin.<br /><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_E6XfbXVvFNI/SQQMrNUO5qI/AAAAAAAAMNE/zLnSAiX5dGw/s1600-h/nun8.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5261344201124013730" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_E6XfbXVvFNI/SQQMrNUO5qI/AAAAAAAAMNE/zLnSAiX5dGw/s400/nun8.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 400px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 289px;" /></a><br /><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_E6XfbXVvFNI/SQQMq46FFJI/AAAAAAAAMM8/o1tGIdMUijk/s1600-h/nun9.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5261344195645609106" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_E6XfbXVvFNI/SQQMq46FFJI/AAAAAAAAMM8/o1tGIdMUijk/s400/nun9.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 400px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 289px;" /></a>Thai sexy actress, Thai popular actress. Thai pretty girl, Asian pretty model, Asian sexy girl. <br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">Pictures </span></b>Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-52945165375546431802011-04-25T02:24:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:51:15.497+05:30Managed Account Forex Trading Software – Automated Forex Trading Software- Web-Based Forex Trading Software- Computer-Based Forex Trading Software<b>Managed Account Forex Trading Software – Automated Forex Trading Software- Web-Based Forex Trading Software- Computer-Based Forex Trading Software</b><br />Foreign exchange or forex is a booming market and most of us are tempted to try our hand in this money game. Day trading refers to buying and selling of stocks most commonly in the foreign exchange market. As it deals with funds, a trader is required to be well funded, and the success depends on several factors, like the choice of software, choice of forex trading systems, understanding of the market, stock brokers, etc. So what is a forex trading software?<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;display:none;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHU66b29e570E8kdtU2i4z9JAXDt05SDyeUS8xg4z5uLQ4Q_2cm4Hu98oD9MMZRJAPXALs8xY8pLCB-6FkGSTtYWMCOw9ia76Ar_nnMRxXhqwJ-j-3ifnM3GKjChvh2sdk_yhJE_GgV2o/s1600/Aruni-7.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHU66b29e570E8kdtU2i4z9JAXDt05SDyeUS8xg4z5uLQ4Q_2cm4Hu98oD9MMZRJAPXALs8xY8pLCB-6FkGSTtYWMCOw9ia76Ar_nnMRxXhqwJ-j-3ifnM3GKjChvh2sdk_yhJE_GgV2o/s400/Aruni-7.jpg" width="266" /></a></div><a name='more'></a> Well, these are trading software that help the trader in analysis and trade execution. It is difficult to name the best forex trading software because each forex broker has software with different features. Selecting a software is always about personal preference and your technical skills and trading style.<br /><div style="float: left; font-size: 80%; margin: 5px;"><img alt="Software" src="http://farm1.static.flickr.com/40/113890696_abd998ff9b_m.jpg" width="160" /><br />by <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/66854529@N00/113890696">JulianBleecker</a></div>The best part about currency trading is you opportunity to make money even if the stock market is low, as there is always a variance in different currency rate.<br /><b>Types of Forex Trading Software</b><br />There are four types of forex trading software and selecting one depends on your need and suitability. Before you zero in on a name, it is first important to understand what type is the best forex trading software for you. Here are the four types of trading software with the names of best currency trading software for each types.<br /><b>Web-Based Forex Trading Software</b><br />This type of currency trading is done using a computer with internet connection from any location. Here the trader needs to go online using a user name and password. The main advantage of this type of software is that the user can access it from anywhere in the world and there is no need to download a software. This is a secure trading software, as your information is in an encrypted form and the software provider always has a backup of your data, in case of data loss. Easy-forex and eToro are some of the best best forex trading software if you wish to carry out online trading.<br /><b>Computer-Based Forex Trading Software</b><br />This type of currency trading can be done using your local desktop or laptop computer. Though this is convenient for most people, there are a number of risks attached to this type of currency trading, like data loss and computer virus. Make sure you have a good internet connection for fast transfer of data, else it might have a negative impact on your trading. So whenever you use this type of software, always create a backup file, keep the data password protected and make sure your computer has a strong and genuine antivirus software. MetaTrader and VT Trader are good stand-alone forex trading software.<br /><b>Automated Forex Trading Software</b><br />The introduction of automated forex trading software has made trading easier, faster and less taxing. You do not waste your time understanding and is quite inexpensive compared to other types of software. The convenience of use and implementation, high accuracy, good return for investment and cost should be the important criteria to look for, while deciding which is the best forex trading software for you. These are also known as day trading robots as the trading is done by the software itself with minimum or no help from your end, so it is mostly used by beginners to learn the ropes of the trade. Forex Tracer, Forex Autopilot and Forex Raptor are some highly recommended and best automated forex trading software available in the market.<br /><b>Managed Account Forex Trading Software</b><br />This is a software for those people who are interested in investing money in forex trading, but do not have the time or interest in trading themselves. Here a trading expert manages your account on your behalf with the help of this software. This is also for those who have tried their hand, but do not have the required knowledge and skills for trading. Some established names of this type of software are CTS Forex, ZuluTrade and dbFX.<br /><b>Tips for Choosing a Forex Trading Software</b><br />Since you are dealing with money, and in a highly competitive market, there are very high chances of loss if you are not cautious enough. Trading means one man’s loss is another man’s gain. So you don’t want to be at the losing end, and want good returns for your investment. So, these are few tips to help you choose the best forex trading software available online:<br />Tip 1: Never buy a software before trying. Most stock brokers offer a trial version of their software, so try out a few software before you buy one. <br />Tip 2: Once you have tried a few software, select one that is fast and saves time.<br />Tip 3: Look for a user friendly software. You do not want to waste most of your time in understanding the features of the software.<br />Tip 4: Read best forex trading software reviews and comments online about the software of your interest.<br />Tip 5: Always check if the software is compatible with your computer system. Otherwise, see if you have the flexibility to upgrade the system.<br />Tip 6: Check for technical support of the trading software. A good software should also have a good technical support staff, in case of emergency or any glitches.<br />How often have you come across websites that vouch to make your 00 to 0000 in four hours? Well the numbers might differ, but the claims are still the same, to make you rich in just a few hours. Don’t get fooled by these claims. You are not the only trader in the market, there are thousands of people with the same goal and do not forget, there are Wall Street pros that you are competing against. Whatever you choose as the best forex trading software according to your requirements, the best lesson in currency trading is to keep realistic expectation. Don’t expect a miracle by giving in four hours of you time when there a people sitting there trading 24 hours a day. As trading software is an important part of the trading business, always read about the reputation of the software before you invest your money.<br /><div>For More Information About Automated Forex Trading Software Platform and a Forex Programs , Visit <a href="http://tinyurl.com/4kkbpaa" rel="nofollow">*** Forex AutoMoney***</a><br /><br />Article from <a href="http://www.articlesbase.com/currency-trading-articles/managed-account-forex-trading-software-automated-forex-trading-software-web-based-forex-trading-software-computer-based-forex-trading-software-4285819.html">articlesbase.com</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHU66b29e570E8kdtU2i4z9JAXDt05SDyeUS8xg4z5uLQ4Q_2cm4Hu98oD9MMZRJAPXALs8xY8pLCB-6FkGSTtYWMCOw9ia76Ar_nnMRxXhqwJ-j-3ifnM3GKjChvh2sdk_yhJE_GgV2o/s1600/Aruni-7.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHU66b29e570E8kdtU2i4z9JAXDt05SDyeUS8xg4z5uLQ4Q_2cm4Hu98oD9MMZRJAPXALs8xY8pLCB-6FkGSTtYWMCOw9ia76Ar_nnMRxXhqwJ-j-3ifnM3GKjChvh2sdk_yhJE_GgV2o/s400/Aruni-7.jpg" width="266" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; 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text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkyvSRAKoOJWBH_0uHhLN1nCe3FnUbGDyzQLERn3mUAHpEAfbcEyWoWh5K9tGO9wqCgbjAOEFdKUEKRbvaO4oWGiSnWGP8mWC4pLUeH2ld4YFs5LPpKj3pwx-MkbknM3l659hsvOPUC-A/s1600/Aruni-2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkyvSRAKoOJWBH_0uHhLN1nCe3FnUbGDyzQLERn3mUAHpEAfbcEyWoWh5K9tGO9wqCgbjAOEFdKUEKRbvaO4oWGiSnWGP8mWC4pLUeH2ld4YFs5LPpKj3pwx-MkbknM3l659hsvOPUC-A/s400/Aruni-2.jpg" width="266" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIRIlJpaR1Kqa2gGP0ciNGL7O9Rjg3ZheU5FV084li4LQ80RF5UEfaT_jbMUhYf1HQA4WWrmeC8s3QhJrQh0EGXKZREFza4vQSpVhhWv1yPFS35PG2y-SVBhXrhOdDRXuLuE2MllqkXx4/s1600/Aruni-3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIRIlJpaR1Kqa2gGP0ciNGL7O9Rjg3ZheU5FV084li4LQ80RF5UEfaT_jbMUhYf1HQA4WWrmeC8s3QhJrQh0EGXKZREFza4vQSpVhhWv1yPFS35PG2y-SVBhXrhOdDRXuLuE2MllqkXx4/s400/Aruni-3.jpg" width="265" /></a></div>Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-81204621500833248792011-04-25T02:04:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:51:15.511+05:30Icelandic Kronur: Lessons from a Failed Carry TradeA little more than two years ago, the Icelandic Kronur was one of the hottest currencies in the world. Thanks to a benchmark interest rate of 18%, the Kronur had particular appeal for carry traders, who worried not about the inherent risks of such a strategy. Shortly thereafter, the Kronur (as well as Iceland’s economy and banking sector) came crashing down, and many traders were wiped out. Now that a couple of years have passed, it’s probably worth reflecting on this turn of events.<br /><a href="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Icelandic-Kronur-Historical-Rates.jpg"><img alt="" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3918" height="248" src="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Icelandic-Kronur-Historical-Rates.jpg" title="Icelandic Kronur Historical Rates" width="407" /></a><br /><br /><a name='more'></a>At its peak, nominal GDP was a relatively modest $20 Billion, sandwiched between Nepal and Turkmenistan in the global GDP rankings. Its population is only 300,000, its current account has been mired in persistent deficit, and its Central Bank boasts a mere $8 Billion in foreign exchange reserves. That being the case, why did investors flock to Iceland and not Turkmenistan?<br />The short answer to that question is <i>interest rates</i>. As I said, Iceland’s benchmark interest rate exceeded 18% at its peak. There are plenty of countries that offered similarly high interest rates, but Iceland was somehow perceived as being more stable. While it didn’t join the European Union until last year, Iceland has always benefited from its association with Europe in general, and Scandinavia in particular. Thanks to per capita GDP of $38,000 per person, its reputation as a stable, advanced economy was not unwarranted.<br />On the other hand, Iceland has always struggled with high inflation, which means its interest rates were never very high in real terms. In addition, the deregulation of its financial sector opened the door for its banks to take huge risks with deposits. Basically, depositors – many from outside the country – parked their savings in Icelandic banks, which turned around and invested the money in high-yield / high-risk ventures. When the credit crisis struck, its banks were quickly wiped out, and the government chose not to follow in the footsteps of other governments and bail them out.<br /><div style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Iceland-GDP-1998-2011.png"><img alt="" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3919" height="240" src="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Iceland-GDP-1998-2011.png" title="Iceland GDP 1998 - 2011" width="560" /></a><br />Moreover, it doesn’t look like Iceland will regain its luster any time soon. Its economy has shrunk by 40% over the last two years, and one prominent economist has estimated that it will take <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/apr/12/iceland-ireland-portugal-markets">7-10 years</a> for it to fully recover. Unemployment and inflation remain high even though interest rates have been cut to 4.25% – a record low. The Kronur has lost 50% of its value against the Dollar and the Euro, the stock market has been decimated, and the <a href="http://www.truth-out.org/why-iceland-voted-no/1302498000">recent decision to not remunerate Dutch and British insurance companies</a> that lost money in Iceland’s crash will only serve to further spook foreign investors. In short, while the Kronur will probably recover some of its value over the next few years (aided by the possibility of joining the Euro), it probably won’t find itself on the radar screens of carry traders anytime soon.</div>In hindsight, Iceland’s economy was an accident waiting to happen, and the global financial crisis only magnified the problem. With Iceland – as well as a dozen other currencies and securities – investors believed they had found the proverbial free lunch. After all, where else could you earn an 18% by putting money in a savings account? Never mind that inflation was just as high; with the Kronur rising, carry traders felt assured that they would make a tidy profit on any funds deposited in Iceland.<br /><div style="text-align: left;">The collapse of the Kronur, however, has shown us that the carry trade is anything but risk-free. In fact, 18% is more than what lenders to Greece and Ireland can expect to earn, which means that it is ultimately a very risky investment. In this case, the 18% that was being paid to depositors were generated by making very risky investments. As the negotiations with the insurance companies have revealed, depositors had nothing protecting them from bank failure, which is ultimately what happened.<br /><a href="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Iceland-Interest-Rates-2002-2011.png"><img alt="" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3920" height="240" src="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Iceland-Interest-Rates-2002-2011.png" title="Iceland Interest Rates 2002 - 2011" width="560" /></a>Now that the carry trade is making a comeback, it’s probably a good time to take a step back and re-assess the risks of such a strategy. Even if Iceland proves to be an extreme case – since most countries won’t let their banks fail – traders must still acknowledge the possibility of massive currency depreciation. In other words, even if the deposits themselves are guaranteed, there is an ever-present risk that converting that deposit back into one’s home currency will result in losses. That’s especially true for a currency that is as illiquid as the Kronur (so illiquid that it took me a while to even find a reliable quote!), and is susceptible to liquidity crunches and short squeezes.</div>When you enter into a carry trade, understand that a spike in volatility could wipe out all of your profits in one session. The only way to minimize your risk is to <a href="http://www.forexblog.org/2011/02/hedging-high-forex-uncertainty.html">hedge your exposure</a>.Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-44812559191425297592011-04-25T02:03:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:51:15.527+05:30Forex Win to Loss Ratios<div style="text-align: justify;">It has been observed that majority of the individual traders in the Forex market function with no trading technique; hence over the longer period of time, they incur high losses. A Forex trading system or tactic is gear to present you an upper hand in the Forex market.</div><h3 style="text-align: justify;">Better to Work with a Systematic Approach</h3><div style="text-align: justify;"></div><div style="text-align: justify;">A Forex trading system verifies whether you are earning profit or not in a Forex market. If you make your trading in a methodical manner then your win to loss ratios will be better than the other traders or investors.</div><h3 style="text-align: justify;">Good Trading System</h3><div style="text-align: justify;">An excellent trading system is that which has already been evaluated by the investors; hence it has an upper hand in the market and also deliver reasonable amount of earning on continuous basis. A gainful and money making Forex system may have win to loss ratio (the percentage of trades with winning to the trades with losing) of 80 percent.</div><div style="text-align: justify;">On the other hand the profit/loss ratio on the volume of the standard win to the volume of standard loss may be 2-3 to 1. You can promptly discover that the mishmash of win/loss and profit/loss proportions (renowned as profitability ratio) enlightens you that the system is money making or not.</div><h3 style="text-align: justify;">How Profitability of System can be Determined?</h3><div style="text-align: justify;">If you proliferate, the sum of profitability ratio must be more than one. Till the time you get this figure more than one, the system is gainful. Preferably the bigger figure is better</div><h3 style="text-align: justify;">Forex System with High Win/Loss Ratio</h3><div style="text-align: justify;">You can work with more personal involvement with the system that exhibit high win/loss ratio. Besides that the big profit loss proportion presents worthwhile outcome of trading activities, even though you are not making ample sum to enhance the market liquidity.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span id="more-2880"></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Finally, it is the amalgamation of both the profit/loss and the win/loss proportions that are truly important. You must therefore, make an endeavor to look for the system in which mutually these factors are high.</div><h3 style="text-align: justify;">What is PIP?</h3><div style="text-align: justify;"><img alt="What is PIP" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2884" height="300" src="http://www.pipstory.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/What-is-PIP.png" width="300" /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"></div><a name='more'></a>PIPs are actually the profits earned in the Forex system which can also be recognized as dollar amounts depending upon a float. The profits that are spoken in terms of pips are conceivably the most frequently utilized indicator to evaluate the accomplishment of a system. The alternating method is to estimate the dollar profits established by a theoretical float.<br /><div style="text-align: justify;">If you have two systems to evaluate, and both the systems have the identical float, in that case you can compare the win/loss ratio of these systems. It means to calculate the percentage of winner trades in comparison to that of losers.</div><h3 style="text-align: justify;">Risk Multiple Principal</h3><div style="text-align: justify;">R multiple principal is one of the major information that you have to comprehend on Forex day trading. Here R stands for the Risk. It means the amount of risk you are willing to assume on any of the trade when you go in the market. In this regard, the R compound of a trade is the proportion of profit or loss as against the sum of cash put in a risk to earn revenue or incur loss.</div><div style="text-align: justify;">For instance, if you put US$150 amount at risk in your preliminary buying, and you earn US$600. It signifies that you have made four times the sum of cash that you put on risk in this trade. Hence, the R multiple is 4 in this example. This data helps you in calculating the comparative volume of your profits to your losses.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><h3 class="related_post_title">People who liked this Post also read</h3><ul class="related_post"><li><a href="http://www.pipstory.com/low-budget-forex-trading-guide.html" title="Low Budget Forex Trading Guide">Low Budget Forex Trading Guide</a><br /><small>The principle of low minimum investment has made Forex trading market very popular worldwide. People with small investment amount US$50 can also venture into it. 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You have to take care of certain things while trading in the US session whether you are working on long or short term basis....</small></li></ul>Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-81462705944904543512011-04-25T02:01:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:51:15.540+05:30Forex Markets Focus on Central BanksOver the last year and increasingly over the last few months, Central Banks around the world have taken center stage in currency markets. First, came the ignition of the currency war and the consequent volley of forex interventions. Then came the prospect of monetary tightening and the unwinding of quantitative easing measures. As if that wasn’t enough to keep them busy, Central Banks have been forced to assume more prominent roles in regulating financial markets and drafting economic policy. With so much to do, perhaps it’s no wonder that Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the ECB, will leave his post at the end of this year!<br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/US-Dollar-Index-5-Year-Chart.png"><img alt="" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3913" height="410" src="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/US-Dollar-Index-5-Year-Chart.png" title="US Dollar Index 5 Year Chart" width="576" /></a></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><a name='more'></a>The currency wars may have subsided, but they haven’t ended. On both a paired and trade-weighted basis, the Dollar is declining rapidly. As a result, emerging market Central Banks are still doing everything they can to protect their respective currencies from rapid appreciation. As I’ve written in earlier posts, most Latin American and Asian Central Banks have already announced targeted strategies, and many intervene in forex markets on a daily basis. If the Japanese Yen continues to appreciate, you can bet the Bank of Japan (perhaps aided by the G7) will quickly jump back in.</div>You can expect the currency wars to continue until the quantitative easing programs instituted by the G4 are withdrawn. The Fed’s $600 Billion Treasury bond buying program officially ends in June, at which point its balance sheet will near $3 Trillion. The European Central Bank has injected an equally large hunk of cash into the Eurozone economy. Despite inflation that may soon exceed 5%, the Bank of England voted not to sell its cache of QE assets, while the Bank of Japan is actually ratcheting up its program as a result of the earthquake-induced catastrophe. Whether or not this manifests itself in higher inflation, investors have signaled their distaste by bidding up the price of gold to a new record high.<br /><a href="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Central-Bank-Fed-ECB-BoE-Balance-Sheet-Assets-Quantitative-Easing.jpg"><img alt="" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3908" height="305" src="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Central-Bank-Fed-ECB-BoE-Balance-Sheet-Assets-Quantitative-Easing.jpg" title="Central Bank Fed ECB BoE Balance Sheet Assets Quantitative Easing" width="276" /></a><br />Then there are the prospective rate hikes, cascading across the world. Last week, the European Central Bank became the first in the G4 to hike rates (though market rates have hardly budged). The Reserve Bank of Australia, however, was the first of the majors to hike rates. Since October 2009, it has raised its benchmark by 175 basis points; its 4.75% cash rate is easily the highest in the industrialized world. The Bank of Canada started hiking in June 2010, but has kept its benchmark on hold at 1% since September. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered its benchmark to a record low 2.5% as a result of serious earthquakes and economic weakness.<br />Going forward, expectations are for all Central Banks to continue (or begin) hiking rates at a gradual pace over the next couple years. If forecasts prove to be accurate, the US Federal Funds Rate will stand around .5% at the beginning of 2012, tied with Switzerland, and ahead of only Japan. The UK Rate will stand slightly above 1%, while the Eurozone and Canadian benchmarks will be closer to 2%. The RBA cash rate should exceed 5%. Rates in emerging markets will probably be even higher, as all four BRIC countries (Russia, Brazil, China, India) should be well into the tightening cycles.<br /><a href="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/G7-2011-Interest-Rates-Current-and-Forecast.jpg"><img alt="" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3910" height="200" src="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/G7-2011-Interest-Rates-Current-and-Forecast.jpg" title="G7 2011 Interest Rates - Current and Forecast" width="502" /></a><br />On the one hand, there is reason to believe that the pace of rate hikes will be slower than expected. Economic growth remains tepid across the industrialized world, and Central Banks are wary about spooking their economies with premature rate hikes. Besides, Fed watchers may have learned a lesson as a result of a brief bout of over-excitement in 2010 that ultimately led to nothing. <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18529677?story_id=18529677">The Economist has reported that</a>, “Markets habitually assign too much weight to the hawks, however. The real power at the Fed rests with its leaders…At present they are sanguine about inflation and worried about unemployment, which means a rate rise this year is unlikely.” Even the ECB disappointed traders by (deliberately) adopting a <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110407-714978.html">soft stance</a> in the press release that accompanied its recent rate hike.<br />On the other hand, a <a href="http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1103.pdf">recent paper published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS)</a> showed that the markets’ track record of forecasting inflation is weak. As you can see from the chart below, they tend to reflect the general trend in inflation, but underestimate when the direction changes suddenly. (This is perhaps similar to the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fat_tail">“fat-tail” problem</a>, whereby extreme aberrations in asset price returns are poorly accounted for in financial models). If you apply this to the current economic environment, it suggests that inflation will probably be much higher-than-expected, and Central Banks will be forced to compensate by hiking rates a faster pace.<br /><a href="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Actual-and-Expected-Inflation-in-Advanced-Economies.jpg"><img alt="" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3909" height="486" src="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Actual-and-Expected-Inflation-in-Advanced-Economies.jpg" title="Actual and Expected Inflation in Advanced Economies" width="536" /></a>Finally, in their newfound roles as economic policymakers, Central Banks are increasingly engaged in <i>macroprudential policy</i>. <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18178251?story_id=18178251">The Economist reports</a> that, “Central banks and regulators in emerging economies have already imposed a host of measures to cool property prices and capital inflows.” These measures are worth watching because their chief aim is to indirectly reduce inflation. If they are successful, it will limit the need for interest rate hikes and reduce upward pressure on their currencies.<br />In short, given the enhanced ability of Central Banks to dictate exchange rates, traders with long-term outlooks may need to adjust their strategies accordingly. That means not only knowing who is expected to raise interest rates – as well as when and by how much – but also monitoring the use of their other tools, such as balance sheet expansion, efforts to cool asset price bubbles, and deliberate manipulation of exchange rates.Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-78645165746293808292011-04-25T01:59:00.000+05:302012-04-04T12:51:15.555+05:30Time to Short the EuroOver the last three months, the Euro has appreciated 10% against the Dollar and by smaller margins against a handful of other currencies. Over the last twelve months, that figure is closer to 20%. That’s in spite of anemic Eurozone GDP growth, serious fiscal issues, the increasing likelihood of one or more sovereign debt defaults, and a current account deficit to boot. In short, I think it might be time to short the Euro.<br /><div style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/EUR-USD-1-year-Chart.jpg"><img alt="" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3897" height="246" src="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/EUR-USD-1-year-Chart.jpg" title="EUR USD 1 year Chart" width="566" /></a><br /><br /><a name='more'></a>There’s very little mystery as to why the Euro is appreciating. In two words: interest rates. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) became the first G4 Central Bank to hike its benchmark interest rate. Moreover, it’s expected to raise rates by an additional 100 basis points over the next twelve months. Given that the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and US Federal Reserve Bank have yet to unwind their respective quantitative easing programs, it’s no wonder that futures markets have priced in a healthy interest rate advantage into the Euro well into 2012.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Implied-Forward-Interest-Rates-US-UK-EU-2010-20121.jpg"><img alt="" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3899" height="266" src="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Implied-Forward-Interest-Rates-US-UK-EU-2010-20121.jpg" title="Implied Forward Interest Rates US UK EU 2010 - 2012" width="543" /></a><br />From where I’m sitting, the ECB rate hike was fundamentally illogical, and perhaps even counterproductive. Granted, the ECB was created to ensure price stability, and its mandate is less nuanced than its counterparts, which are charged also with facilitating employment and GDP growth. Even from this perspective, however, it looks like the ECB jumped the gun. Inflation in the EU is a moderate 2.7%, which is among the lowest in the world. Other Central Banks have taken note of rising inflation, but only the ECB feels compelled enough to preemptively address it. In addition, GDP growth is a paltry .3% across the EU, and is in fact negative in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal. As if the rate hike wasn’t bad enough, all three countries must contend with a hike in their already stratospheric borrowing costs, ironically making default more likely. Talk about not seeing the forest for the trees!</div><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Eurozone-GDP-Growth-Rates.jpg"><img alt="" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3901" height="356" src="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Eurozone-GDP-Growth-Rates.jpg" title="Eurozone GDP Growth Rates" width="548" /></a></div><div style="text-align: left;">If the <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110324-706805.html">rumors</a> are true, Portugal will soon become the third country to receive a bailout from the EU. (It should be noted that as recently as November, Portugal insisted that it was just fine and that a bailout wasn’t necessary). Its sovereign credit rating is now three notches above junk status. <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8647441.stm">Today, Greece became the first</a> Eurozone country to be awarded this dubious distinction, and Ireland is now only one downgrade away from suffering the same fate. Of course, Spain insists that it is just fine and denies the possibility of a bailout. At this point, though, does it have any credibility? Based on rising credit default swap rates (which serve as a gauge of the probability of default), I think that investors have become a little more cynical about taking governments at face value.</div>I have discussed the fiscal woes of the Eurozone in <a href="http://www.forexblog.org/2011/03/euro-buoyed-by-rate-hike-expectations-but-debt-issues-remain-unsolved.html">previous posts</a>, and don’t want to dwell on them here. For now, I’d only like to add a footnote on the extent to which their problems are intertwined. Banks in Germany and France (as well as the rest of the EU) have <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18560535?story_id=18560535&CFID=168895696&CFTOKEN=50220894">tremendous balance sheet exposure</a> to PIGS’ sovereign debt, which means that any default would multiply across the Eurozone in the form of bank failures. (You can see from the chart below that the exposure of the US is small, relative to GDP).<br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Foreign-Banks-Exposure-to-Eurozone-PIGS-Debt-Default.jpg"><img alt="" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3900" height="302" src="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Foreign-Banks-Exposure-to-Eurozone-PIGS-Debt-Default.jpg" title="Foreign Banks Exposure to Eurozone PIGS Debt Default" width="550" /></a></div><div style="text-align: left;">Some analysts insist that all of this has already been priced into the Euro. <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/8406536/Markets-shrug-off-Portugal-debt-downgrades.html">Citigroup Said</a>, “The market is treating many of these [sovereign credit rating] downgrades as rearguard actions which are already well discounted.” Personally, I don’t think that forex markets have made a sincere effort to grapple with the possibility of default, which appears increasingly inevitable. In fact, when S&P issued a warning on the US AAA rating, traders responded by handing the Euro its <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110418-713104.html">worst intraday decline in 2011</a>.</div>Any way you cut it, I think the Euro is overvalued. Regardless of what the ECB is doing, market interest rates don’t really confer much benefit to those holding Euros. Even if the rate differential widens to 1-2% over the next year (which is certainly not guaranteed, as <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110407-714978.html">Jean-Claude Trichet himself has conceded</a>!) this isn’t really enough to compensate for the possibility of default or other risk event. Regardless of whether you want to be long or short risk, there isn’t much to be gained at the moment from holding the Euro.Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602483446537048619.post-44847345700235306512010-05-26T13:07:00.001+05:302012-04-04T12:57:36.873+05:30Bopha Khmer Krom video<embed id="VideoPlayback" src="http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docid=524561751352672814&hl=en&fs=true" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" style="width: 400px; height: 326px; "></embed><br />Length: 1 hr 16 min<br /><br />Our sincere thanks to S. Sophan!Todayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06337357571225045965noreply@blogger.com0